Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
450 picks · 990 bans
Void Spirit
429 picks · 591 bans
Death Prophet
369 picks · 696 bans
Mars
354 picks · 606 bans
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 183 bans
Grimstroke
285 picks · 249 bans
Phoenix
279 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:31
Team Unique 29%PuckChamp 71%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 35:56.
Game 2prediction correct32:17
Team Unique 29%PuckChamp 71%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 42:55.
Game 3prediction correct29:16
Team Unique 29%PuckChamp 71%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 32:31.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 71%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3