Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
Tusksignature
sayuw · 6 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
Fantastic Five
Earth Spirit
Muka · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
633 · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Muka · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
Tusk
633 · 1 game
Viperoften banned
SuperNova · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
451 picks · 988 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 593 bans
Death Prophet
369 picks · 694 bans
Mars
352 picks · 608 bans
Earth Spirit
321 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 183 bans
Grimstroke
283 picks · 247 bans
Phoenix
279 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:12
Team Empire 56%Fantastic Five 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
PuckAskold
Tinykiyotaka
UnderlordSuperNova
MagnusPetushara
Enigma633
EnchantressVANSKOR
Earth SpiritMuka
Lionsayuw
Game 2prediction correct37:24
Team Empire 53%Fantastic Five 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautSmiling Knight
Ember SpiritAskold
Void Spiritkiyotaka
Centaur WarrunnerSuperNova
Bounty HunterPetushara
Shadow DemonMuka
Grimstrokesayuw
Jakiro633
LichVANSKOR
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 60%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2