Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DSDemon Slayerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Demon Slayer
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
449 picks · 988 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 593 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 693 bans
Mars
351 picks · 609 bans
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 296 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 182 bans
Grimstroke
282 picks · 244 bans
Phoenix
277 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Demon Slayer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:25
Team MagMa 45%Demon Slayer 55%
The model gave 55% on Demon Slayer — the game was taken by Demon Slayer in 36:32.
Game 2prediction correct8:26
Team MagMa 45%Demon Slayer 55%
The model gave 55% on Demon Slayer — the game was taken by Demon Slayer in 32:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteDemon Slayer · 55%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2