Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wind and Rainloss 0:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:1
D2 Hustlerswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wind and Rain
No games played over 6 months.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
449 picks · 982 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 590 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 691 bans
Mars
351 picks · 604 bans
Earth Spirit
322 picks · 294 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 181 bans
Grimstroke
280 picks · 242 bans
Phoenix
276 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Wind and Rain
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:45
Wind and Rain 38%D2 Hustlers 62%
The model gave 62% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 40:25.
Game 2prediction correct15:36
Wind and Rain 38%D2 Hustlers 62%
The model gave 62% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 33:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 62%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2