Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
Arc Wardenoften banned
Excalibur · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
5up · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Gorgc · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Pablo · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Rajjix · 1 game
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
445 picks · 979 bans
Void Spirit
425 picks · 588 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 689 bans
Mars
351 picks · 602 bans
Earth Spirit
319 picks · 294 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 180 bans
Grimstroke
276 picks · 238 bans
Phoenix
276 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:25
Team Bald Reborn 61%Chicken Fighters 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 25:38.
Game 2prediction missed13:39
Team Bald Reborn 61%Chicken Fighters 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 38:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 61%
Series resultChicken Fighters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2