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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboysloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

strongboys

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 7 games
86%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
86%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lowskill · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 6 games
83%
Marci
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 5 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
80%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 27 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 24 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 23 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 22 games
41%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 22 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 22 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
551 picks · 907 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 401 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 653 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
479 picks · 611 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 866 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 605 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 501 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
358 picks · 213 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 57%
Hero pool strength62% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
strongboys 48%Yellow Submarine 52%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:03:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLowskill
46% · 255 games51% · 153 games
Shadow Fiendbottega
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawChodΣX
55% · 181 game55% · 259 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStojkov
43% · 110 games41% · 109 games
UnderlordInfernal
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPonlo
48% · 195 games54% · 24 games
Largoprblms
Largo
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorTobi
63% · 44 games50% · 240 games
RingmasterHtrd
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed20:31
strongboys 50%Yellow Submarine 50%
The model gave 50% on strongboys — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracStojkov
50% · 174 games50% · 395 games
Dragon KnightMirele
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLowskill
50% · 335 games48% · 283 games
Batriderbottega
Batrider
Marci
MarciChodΣX
55% · 166 games50% · 290 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPonlo
41% · 293 games61% · 35 games
Grimstrokeprblms
Grimstroke
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTobi
53% · 73 games50% · 38 games
Ogre MagiHtrd
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 54%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2