?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 5 games
80%

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
83%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 5 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 4 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 966 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
419 picks · 585 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 680 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 596 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
315 picks · 285 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
279 picks · 179 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
268 picks · 233 bans
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
268 picks · 385 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
Team Spirit 61%Natus Vincere 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYatoro
50% · 101 game40% · 19 games
Anti-MageV-Tune
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 67 games52% · 127 games
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
57% · 22 games45% · 123 games
Void SpiritIceberg
Void Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
50% · 19 games73% · 7 games
DisruptorALWAYSWANNAFLY
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskMira
39% · 88 games71% · 21 game
Dark WillowRodjER
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct21:5
Team Spirit 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
42% · 66 games48% · 68 games
MorphlingV-Tune
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
42% · 140 games52% · 72 games
Storm SpiritIceberg
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
38% · 36 games64% · 86 games
BeastmasterRAMZES666
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
47% · 26 games66% · 33 games
Shadow DemonRodjER
Shadow Demon
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
43% · 102 games60% · 111 games
PhoenixALWAYSWANNAFLY
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2