Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 14 games
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
Marsoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
Aster.Aries
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
440 picks · 969 bans
Void Spirit
418 picks · 586 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 680 bans
Mars
342 picks · 598 bans
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 284 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 180 bans
Grimstroke
266 picks · 230 bans
Phoenix
266 picks · 386 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 61%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictioncorrect