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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 8 games
75%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 7 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
1ls · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 961 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
417 picks · 585 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 678 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 591 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 282 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
274 picks · 180 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
266 picks · 385 bans
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 227 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:29
AS Monaco Gambit 37%Virtus.pro 63%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:58.
Game 2prediction correct29:22
AS Monaco Gambit 37%Virtus.pro 63%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:11.
Game 3prediction correct42:16
AS Monaco Gambit 37%Virtus.pro 63%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3