Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 6 games
Earthshaker
[T]SA · 5 games
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
436 picks · 959 bans
Void Spirit
415 picks · 585 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 676 bans
Mars
341 picks · 591 bans
Earth Spirit
309 picks · 282 bans
Tusk
274 picks · 180 bans
Phoenix
265 picks · 383 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Prosti Esli
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Prosti Esli
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:29
B8 Esports 47%Prosti Esli 53%
The model gave 53% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 41:03.
Game 2prediction missed24:9
B8 Esports 47%Prosti Esli 53%
The model gave 53% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 30:30.
Game 3prediction correct7:27
B8 Esports 47%Prosti Esli 53%
The model gave 53% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 29:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteProsti Esli · 53%
Series resultProsti Esli 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3