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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoTechiesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
75%

NoTechies

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 5 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Solo · 5 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Zayac · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Malik · 4 games
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 4 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malik · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 959 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
414 picks · 584 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 675 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 592 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 281 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
272 picks · 180 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
262 picks · 382 bans
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 225 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 27%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
Nemiga Gaming 57%NoTechies 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKiritych
45% · 78 games44% · 8 games
Lunalayme
Luna
Pugna
PugnaAinkrad
48% · 13 games58% · 126 games
MarsDkFogas
Mars
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTheChosenOne
47% · 13 games52% · 72 games
Ember SpiritEgor
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritHellscream
57% · 115 games56% · 49 games
Witch DoctorSolo
Witch Doctor
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLodine
38% · 99 games47% · 63 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Game 2prediction correct40:34
Nemiga Gaming 60%NoTechies 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKiritych
little data53% · 33 games
Phantom Assassinlayme
Phantom Assassin
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
47% · 78 games57% · 11 games
RazorEgor
Razor
Windranger
WindrangerAinkrad
44% · 5 games44% · 10 games
Centaur WarrunnerDkFogas
Centaur Warrunner
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
56% · 10 games47% · 20 games
Tinyxsvampire
Tiny
Tusk
TuskHellscream
47% · 46 games55% · 65 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 67%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2