Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 18 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 17 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 9 games
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 9 games
Razorsignature
qojqva · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
qojqva · 8 games
Tinysignature
Taiga · 8 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
434 picks · 949 bans
Void Spirit
408 picks · 582 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 670 bans
Mars
334 picks · 585 bans
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 275 bans
Tusk
270 picks · 179 bans
Phoenix
260 picks · 379 bans
Grimstroke
253 picks · 220 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:31
Team Liquid 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:23.
Game 2prediction missed28:28
Team Liquid 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Alliance in 34:59.
Game 3prediction missed20:29
Team Liquid 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Alliance in 36:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 50%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3