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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
Febby · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Febby · 3 games
100%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Armel · 3 games
67%

Execration

Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
RR · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 946 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
407 picks · 581 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
361 picks · 668 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 584 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
306 picks · 273 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
268 picks · 179 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
260 picks · 378 bans
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
253 picks · 219 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:17
TNC Predator 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterArmel
62% · 50 games35% · 59 games
Troll WarlordPalos
Troll Warlord
Razor
RazorGabbi
74% · 26 games48% · 113 games
Void SpiritYowe
Void Spirit
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBok
52% · 46 games56% · 10 games
BrewmasterForce
Brewmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTims
43% · 3 games40% · 32 games
AbaddonRR
Abaddon
Tusk
TuskBoomy
49% · 89 games
Game 2prediction missed27:29
TNC Predator 50%Execration 50%
The model gave 50% on Execration — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaGabbi
64% · 11 games55% · 32 games
Nature's ProphetPalos
Nature's Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainArmel
45% · 53 games46% · 9 games
InvokerYowe
Invoker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBok
51% · 14 games47% · 74 games
MarsForce
Mars
Mirana
MiranaTims
47% · 56 games50% · 67 games
TuskRR
Tusk
Io
IoBoomy
56% · 48 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 51%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2