FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboysloss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Power Rangerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
strongboys
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Lowskill · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 6 games
Muerta
Ponlo · 5 games
Clinkzoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 4 games
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 8 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 7 games
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 7 games
Tusk
Immersion · 6 games
Chenoften banned
Hduo · 5 games
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 5 games
Kunkka
Alberkaaa · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
548 picks · 902 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 399 bans
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 653 bans
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 605 bans
Shadow Demon
407 picks · 855 bans
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 597 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 581 bans
Mars
356 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:18
strongboys 52%Power Rangers 48%
The model gave 52% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendLowskill
BristlebackAlberkaaa
MarciChodΣX
Windrangernesfeer
TinyStojkov
Slardarnicky`cool
MuertaPonlo
Shadow DemonImmersion
JakiroTobi
TuskHduo
Game 2prediction correct29:57
strongboys 50%Power Rangers 50%
The model gave 50% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 49:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendLowskill
Ursanesfeer
Queen of PainStojkov
Timbersawnicky`cool
UnderlordChodΣX
RazorAlberkaaa
MuertaPonlo
WarlockHduo
Nyx AssassinTobi
TuskImmersion
Game 3prediction correct11:25
strongboys 49%Power Rangers 51%
The model gave 51% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendLowskill
Juggernautnesfeer
Storm SpiritStojkov
Tinynicky`cool
TidehunterChodΣX
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Shadow DemonPonlo
WarlockHduo
Nyx AssassinTobi
PhoenixImmersion
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 52%
Series resultPower Rangers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3