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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 9 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
September · 6 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
September · 5 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dstones · 4 games
50%

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 941 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
406 picks · 580 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 664 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 583 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 272 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 177 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 375 bans
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
250 picks · 211 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:20
Sparking Arrow Gaming 33%Royal Never Give Up 67%
The model gave 67% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 34:18.
Game 2prediction correct23:29
Sparking Arrow Gaming 33%Royal Never Give Up 67%
The model gave 67% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 40:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 67%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2