Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DSDemon Slayerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 14 games
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
Marsoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
Demon Slayer
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
431 picks · 939 bans
Void Spirit
405 picks · 580 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 664 bans
Mars
333 picks · 582 bans
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 272 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 177 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 373 bans
Grimstroke
250 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Demon Slayer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Demon Slayer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteDemon Slayer · 62%
Series resultLBZS 2:0
Series predictionmissed