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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
yarintheslayer · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
lukiluki · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Bloody Nine · 4 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
67%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yarintheslayer · 2 games
50%

Felt

Axe
Axeoften banned
Zore · 4 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Zore · 3 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
solji · 2 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 2 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 2 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 939 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
405 picks · 580 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 664 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 582 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 272 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 177 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 373 bans
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
250 picks · 209 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 61%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect