Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 15 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 10 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 9 games
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 9 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Team Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
431 picks · 935 bans
Void Spirit
404 picks · 579 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 660 bans
Mars
333 picks · 580 bans
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 270 bans
Tusk
263 picks · 176 bans
Phoenix
253 picks · 373 bans
Grimstroke
249 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:32
ViKin.gg 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerShad
Wraith KingYatoro
LeshracBOOM
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
DoomKheZu
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Shadow ShamanAramis
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
OracleSeleri
TuskMira
Game 2prediction missed7:26
ViKin.gg 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordShad
Phantom LancerYatoro
Queen of PainBOOM
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Dark SeerKheZu
TidehunterCollapse
TuskAramis
MiranaMira
EnchantressSeleri
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2