Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
Windranger
Storm · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
431 picks · 936 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 582 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 658 bans
Mars
336 picks · 580 bans
Earth Spirit
306 picks · 272 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 174 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 367 bans
Grimstroke
250 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 35%
Hero pool strength50% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total69% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:6
CDEC Gaming 69%Xtreme Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 23:53.
Game 2prediction missed6:24
CDEC Gaming 69%Xtreme Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 69%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2