Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
429 picks · 936 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 581 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 657 bans
Mars
335 picks · 580 bans
Earth Spirit
306 picks · 272 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 174 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 365 bans
Grimstroke
248 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:30
Team MagMa 32%Aster.Aries 68%
The model gave 68% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 45:51.
Game 2prediction correct25:16
Team MagMa 32%Aster.Aries 68%
The model gave 68% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 42:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 68%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2