Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
High Coast Esportswin 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ghost frogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
High Coast Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
Ghost frogs
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tobi · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
j4 · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 1 game
Earth Spirit
MiLAN · 1 game
Grimstroke
j4 · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
j4 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
428 picks · 935 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 580 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 657 bans
Mars
335 picks · 578 bans
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 272 bans
Tusk
257 picks · 173 bans
Phoenix
254 picks · 365 bans
Grimstroke
247 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 83%
Hero pool strength57% Ghost frogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:6
High Coast Esports 39%Ghost frogs 61%
The model gave 61% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 22:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautCharlie
Wraith KingCrystallis
Shadow FiendSupream^
MorphlingBor@nija
MagnusChessie
Death ProphetTobi
PhoenixHandsken
Grimstrokej4
TuskXibbe
Earth SpiritMiLAN
Game 2prediction missed28:34
High Coast Esports 36%Ghost frogs 64%
The model gave 64% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 50:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCharlie
BloodseekerCrystallis
PuckSupream^
Storm SpiritBor@nija
JakiroChessie
UnderlordTobi
PhoenixXibbe
MiranaMiLAN
ClockwerkHandsken
Banej4
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 74%
Series resultHigh Coast Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2