?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 10 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 9 games
22%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
KheZu · 8 games
50%

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
71%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
sayuw · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
427 picks · 938 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
406 picks · 584 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 655 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 581 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 273 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
257 picks · 365 bans
62%
Tusk
Tusk
254 picks · 174 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
247 picks · 205 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
ViKin.gg 66%Team Empire 34%
The model gave 66% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 18:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
61% · 37 games49% · 43 games
Queen of Painkiyotaka
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterKheZu
45% · 46 games65% · 52 games
Nature's ProphetPetushara
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBOOM
46% · 54 games47% · 76 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Tusk
TuskAramis
55% · 121 game52% · 124 games
Earth Spiritsayuw
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSeleri
38% · 87 games47% · 50 games
AbaddonVANSKOR
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct39:18
ViKin.gg 66%Team Empire 34%
The model gave 66% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinShad
47% · 45 games50% · 37 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Puck
PuckBOOM
51% · 144 games50% · 16 games
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetKheZu
50% · 124 games52% · 95 games
PangolierPetushara
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyAramis
56% · 5 games49% · 145 games
Shadow Shamansayuw
Shadow Shaman
Tidehunter
TidehunterSeleri
50% · 67 games49% · 92 games
TuskVANSKOR
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 77%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2