?
arrow_backBack to match
Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO5
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 0:3
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Execrationwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 9 games
89%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Sam_H · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
67%

Execration

Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
427 picks · 936 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
406 picks · 583 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
358 picks · 653 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 581 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 273 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 364 bans
62%
Tusk
Tusk
252 picks · 174 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
244 picks · 204 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Omega Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:28
Omega Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTino-
39% · 45 games57% · 47 games
Troll WarlordPalos
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
45% · 67 gameslittle data
DoomForce
Doom
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSam_H
25% · 28 games59% · 108 games
Void SpiritYowe
Void Spirit
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
42% · 81 game66% · 66 games
Nyx AssassinRR
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed23:34
Omega Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMac
44% · 25 games58% · 26 games
Nature's ProphetPalos
Nature's Prophet
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinTino-
47% · 30 games43% · 3 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Doom
DoomSam_H
43% · 3 games54% · 70 games
Death ProphetYowe
Death Prophet
Tusk
Tuskcml
43% · 68 games57% · 27 games
Elder TitanRR
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed0:0
Omega Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 52:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSam_H
39% · 16 games47% · 31 game
BatriderForce
Batrider
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeTino-
39% · 23 games57% · 3 games
SpectreYowe
Spectre
Omniknight
Omniknightcml
67% · 5 gameslittle data
Faceless VoidRR
Faceless Void
Invoker
InvokerMac
50% · 12 games69% · 22 games
EarthshakerPalos
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 56%
Series resultExecration 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3