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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 17 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 9 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dalul · 9 games
78%
Razor
Razorsignature
Fbz · 8 games
88%
Pudge
Pudge
dalul · 7 games
57%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 31 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 20 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 20 games
25%
Bane
Bane
BoBoKa · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
547 picks · 900 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 398 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 650 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
474 picks · 603 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 850 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 596 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 580 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
353 picks · 496 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 30%
Hero pool strength62% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:34
REKONIX 58%Yakult Brothers 42%
The model gave 58% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 28:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTraVins
52% · 175 games51% · 89 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
55% · 415 games52% · 237 games
SlardarYang
Slardar
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritinYourdreaM
61% · 36 games47% · 355 games
TinyMoon
Tiny
Phoenix
Phoenixdalul
45% · 200 games48% · 434 games
Jakiro天命
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskVarizh
50% · 571 game46% · 282 games
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct34:11
REKONIX 56%Yakult Brothers 44%
The model gave 56% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTraVins
47% · 137 games45% · 169 games
LeshracMoon
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
50% · 133 games62% · 46 games
Clinkzflyfly
Clinkz
Kunkka
KunkkainYourdreaM
44% · 61 game49% · 241 game
MarsYang
Mars
Lion
Liondalul
43% · 46 games55% · 12 games
LargoBoBoKa
Largo
Disruptor
DisruptorVarizh
53% · 171 game56% · 80 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct22:10
REKONIX 55%Yakult Brothers 45%
The model gave 55% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 36:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTraVins
42% · 46 games47% · 141 game
TimbersawYang
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterFbz
47% · 141 game49% · 134 games
LeshracMoon
Leshrac
Invoker
InvokerinYourdreaM
57% · 105 games45% · 52 games
Slarkflyfly
Slark
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterdalul
55% · 111 games58% · 146 games
ChenBoBoKa
Chen
Disruptor
DisruptorVarizh
43% · 221 game53% · 151 game
Shadow Shaman天命
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 58%
Series resultREKONIX 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3