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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 11 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
38%

Level UP

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 948 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
406 picks · 591 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 654 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 591 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 275 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
257 picks · 366 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
253 picks · 176 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
245 picks · 348 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:23
Brame 77%Level UP 23%
The model gave 77% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 58:48.
Game 2prediction correct37:12
Brame 77%Level UP 23%
The model gave 77% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 34:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 77%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2