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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO5
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 3:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Dragonloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
57%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
33%

Dragon

Mars
Marsoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
ghost · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 957 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
406 picks · 590 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
354 picks · 653 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 605 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
313 picks · 275 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
261 picks · 366 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
253 picks · 175 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
246 picks · 340 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
Execration 52%Dragon 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagePalos
33% · 11 games57% · 75 games
Death Prophetghost
Death Prophet
Razor
RazorYowe
63% · 12 games
Mars
MarsForce
36% · 52 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRR
little data
Game 2prediction correct22:46
Execration 50%Dragon 50%
The model gave 50% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerPalos
55% · 7 games56% · 112 games
Marsghost
Mars
Puck
PuckYowe
53% · 58 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeForce
28% · 32 games
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRR
47% · 15 games
Game 3prediction missed18:35
Execration 52%Dragon 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Dragon in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalos
little data50% · 6 games
Centaur Warrunnerghost
Centaur Warrunner
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYowe
50% · 6 games
Brewmaster
BrewmasterForce
little data
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRR
little data
Game 4prediction correct40:20
Execration 51%Dragon 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPalos
little data54% · 20 games
Legion Commanderghost
Legion Commander
Mars
MarsForce
43% · 10 games
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYowe
50% · 10 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRR
little data
Game 5prediction missed26:10
Execration 50%Dragon 50%
The model gave 50% on Dragon — the game was taken by Execration in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalos
33% · 5 games53% · 24 games
Dark Seerghost
Dark Seer
Razor
RazorYowe
57% · 3 games
Death Prophet
Death ProphetForce
31% · 9 games
Tusk
TuskRR
73% · 7 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 55%
Series resultExecration 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5