Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportsloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
435 picks · 964 bans
Void Spirit
411 picks · 593 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 655 bans
Mars
343 picks · 609 bans
Earth Spirit
316 picks · 278 bans
Phoenix
263 picks · 366 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 175 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 23%
Hero pool strength50% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Cascade Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCascade Esports · 61%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed