Fantastic Five vs Nemiga Gaming — prediction DCLS 2 2021 1 · Dota 2

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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3

result vs prediction

Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2

series probability

34%66%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Marsoften banned

Ainkrad · 12 games

58%

Ursaoften banned

tatakae · 6 games

50%

Pangolieroften banned

Ainkrad · 5 games

40%

Tusk

Lodine · 5 games

60%

Jakiro

Lodine · 4 games

25%

Naga Sirenoften banned

tatakae · 4 games

75%

Oracleoften banned

Lodine · 4 games

25%

Witch Doctor

Lodine · 4 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

437 picks · 970 bans

52%

Void Spirit

414 picks · 599 bans

54%

Death Prophet

354 picks · 655 bans

56%

Mars

349 picks · 614 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

318 picks · 282 bans

50%

Phoenix

263 picks · 368 bans

61%

Tusk

255 picks · 175 bans

52%

Rubick

250 picks · 166 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%

Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total66% Nemiga Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct7:36

Fantastic Five 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%

The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 25:51.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo