Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPPatriotsloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Patriots
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
442 picks · 977 bans
Void Spirit
415 picks · 600 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 659 bans
Mars
353 picks · 622 bans
Earth Spirit
320 picks · 284 bans
Phoenix
266 picks · 371 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 175 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 167 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% Patriots
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Patriots
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoritePatriots · 66%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictionmissed