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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragonwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
25%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
17%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
75%

Dragon

Mars
Marsoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
ghost · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
442 picks · 977 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
415 picks · 600 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 659 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
353 picks · 622 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
320 picks · 284 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
266 picks · 371 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
258 picks · 175 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 167 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% LBZS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 60%
Series resultDragon 0:2
Series predictioncorrect