Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionGEGMT Esportswin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwertyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GMT Esports
No games played over 6 months.
qwerty
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
445 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
415 picks · 602 bans
Mars
361 picks · 630 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 663 bans
Earth Spirit
327 picks · 285 bans
Phoenix
271 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 177 bans
Rubick
257 picks · 166 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% GMT Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% qwerty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:10
GMT Esports 33%qwerty 67%
The model gave 67% on qwerty — the game was taken by GMT Esports in 28:14.
Game 2prediction missed38:9
GMT Esports 33%qwerty 67%
The model gave 67% on qwerty — the game was taken by GMT Esports in 24:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteqwerty · 67%
Series resultGMT Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2