Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Prosti Esliloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ghost frogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
Ghost frogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
453 picks · 999 bans
Void Spirit
419 picks · 610 bans
Mars
366 picks · 637 bans
Death Prophet
355 picks · 669 bans
Earth Spirit
332 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
274 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
260 picks · 176 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 847 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 80%
Hero pool strength50% Prosti Esli
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:22
Prosti Esli 29%Ghost frogs 71%
The model gave 71% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 30:55.
Game 2prediction correct27:31
Prosti Esli 29%Ghost frogs 71%
The model gave 71% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 41:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 71%
Series resultGhost frogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2