Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LBZSwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 14 games
Tusk
CatYou · 7 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
453 picks · 1004 bans
Void Spirit
420 picks · 611 bans
Mars
369 picks · 639 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 666 bans
Earth Spirit
334 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
276 picks · 377 bans
Rubick
260 picks · 167 bans
Tusk
260 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% LBZS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:3
Yangon Galacticos 55%LBZS 45%
The model gave 55% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by LBZS in 53:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYoung PH
LionCatYou
58% · 15 games
Timbersawxiaofu
Game 2prediction correct25:7
Yangon Galacticos 62%LBZS 38%
The model gave 62% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 20:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYoung PH
Timbersawxiaofu
36% · 7 games
PangolierCatYou
Game 3prediction missed33:49
Yangon Galacticos 59%LBZS 41%
The model gave 59% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by LBZS in 46:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanYoung PH
Marsxiaofu
50% · 12 games
TuskCatYou
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 66%
Series resultLBZS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3