Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Crocodileloss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dragonwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Crocodile
Elder Titan
QYQX · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Sakata · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Abaddon
QYQX · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Dragon
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Axeoften banned
ghost · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
ghost · 1 game
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
453 picks · 1006 bans
Void Spirit
423 picks · 610 bans
Mars
370 picks · 641 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 663 bans
Earth Spirit
334 picks · 289 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 379 bans
Tusk
261 picks · 174 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 844 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Crocodile
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:34
Crocodile 49%Dragon 51%
The model gave 51% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 28:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritSakata
Nature's Prophetghost
PhoenixQYQX
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Crocodile 51%Dragon 49%
The model gave 51% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile in 24:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritSakata
Nature's Prophetghost
PhoenixQYQX
Game 3prediction missed18:47
Crocodile 52%Dragon 48%
The model gave 52% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Dragon in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireSakata
Marsghost
Ancient ApparitionQYQX
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 53%
Series resultDragon 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3