Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPSPecado Squad Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PPositively,Positiveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pecado Squad Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Positively,Positive
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
463 picks · 1014 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 617 bans
Mars
373 picks · 659 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 664 bans
Earth Spirit
339 picks · 293 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 389 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 851 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Pecado Squad Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Pecado Squad Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:12
Pecado Squad Gaming 61%Positively,Positive 39%
The model gave 61% on Pecado Squad Gaming — the game was taken by Positively,Positive in 29:42.
Game 2prediction correct33:20
Pecado Squad Gaming 61%Positively,Positive 39%
The model gave 61% on Pecado Squad Gaming — the game was taken by Pecado Squad Gaming in 33:23.
Game 3prediction correct21:38
Pecado Squad Gaming 61%Positively,Positive 39%
The model gave 61% on Pecado Squad Gaming — the game was taken by Pecado Squad Gaming in 40:51.
Model check result
Model favoritePecado Squad Gaming · 61%
Series resultPecado Squad Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3