Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionEBEsports Bearsloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Esports Bears
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Tusk
Lodine · 5 games
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
463 picks · 1014 bans
Void Spirit
426 picks · 617 bans
Mars
373 picks · 658 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 663 bans
Earth Spirit
339 picks · 293 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 389 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 850 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:39
Esports Bears 25%Nemiga Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 75%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1