Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DSDemon Slayerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Demon Slayer
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
464 picks · 1017 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 621 bans
Mars
375 picks · 660 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 666 bans
Earth Spirit
341 picks · 294 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
271 picks · 853 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Demon Slayer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 53%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictioncorrect