Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DSDemon Slayerwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Tusk
Ponlo · 2 games
Grimstroke
QYQX · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
doodle · 1 game
Marsoften banned
7e · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
doodle · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Deth · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Ponlo · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Deth · 1 game
Demon Slayer
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1019 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 619 bans
Mars
374 picks · 662 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 664 bans
Earth Spirit
338 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 852 bans
Rubick
263 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Demon Slayer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Demon Slayer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteDemon Slayer · 58%
Series resultDemon Slayer 0:2
Series predictioncorrect