Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
V-Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
V-Gaming
Marsoften banned
laise · 5 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Lion
ArrOw · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1022 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 619 bans
Mars
377 picks · 661 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 663 bans
Earth Spirit
339 picks · 294 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
270 picks · 853 bans
Tusk
266 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 52%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictioncorrect