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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The Primeloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Prime

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Rusman · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Rusman · 2 games
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
BARBIE-Usagi · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Rusman · 2 games
50%

Team SMG

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
20%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
20%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 4 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
462 picks · 1022 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
430 picks · 619 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 661 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 663 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
339 picks · 294 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 388 bans
61%
Monkey King
Monkey King
270 picks · 853 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
266 picks · 176 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 20%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% The Prime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:36
The Prime 58%Team SMG 42%
The model gave 58% on The Prime — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRusman
58% · 35 games48% · 35 games
JuggernautMidOne
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAzur4
58% · 38 games32% · 13 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Lion
LionBARBIE-Usagi
48% · 33 games48% · 20 games
EnigmaAhFu
Enigma
46% · 38 games
Shadow ShamanMushi
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Prime · 65%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1