i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1021 bans
Void Spirit
429 picks · 618 bans
Mars
377 picks · 660 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 663 bans
Earth Spirit
337 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 387 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 852 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:18
Elephant 40%Royal Never Give Up 60%
The model gave 60% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 20:14.
Game 2prediction correct28:26
Elephant 40%Royal Never Give Up 60%
The model gave 60% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 53:00.
Game 3prediction correct9:30
Elephant 40%Royal Never Give Up 60%
The model gave 60% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 30:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 60%
Series resultElephant 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3