Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 9 games
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mac · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 6 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
Oraclesignature
RR · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1023 bans
Void Spirit
431 picks · 619 bans
Mars
378 picks · 662 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 663 bans
Earth Spirit
337 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 387 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 853 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 61%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed