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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragonwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 3 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Storm · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 3 games
100%
Windranger
Windranger
Storm · 3 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Storm · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%

Dragon

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
ghost · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ghost · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
459 picks · 1022 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
429 picks · 617 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 659 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
352 picks · 659 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
338 picks · 292 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 385 bans
61%
Monkey King
Monkey King
269 picks · 852 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
Xtreme Gaming 54%Dragon 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Dragon in 26:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStorm
70% · 6 games30% · 6 games
Windrangerghost
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct17:23
Xtreme Gaming 42%Dragon 58%
The model gave 58% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetStorm
little datalittle data
Broodmotherghost
Broodmother
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 55%
Series resultDragon 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2