Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Crocodileloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Crocodile
Elder Titan
QYQX · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Sakata · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Abaddon
QYQX · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1022 bans
Void Spirit
429 picks · 619 bans
Mars
378 picks · 660 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 660 bans
Earth Spirit
338 picks · 293 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 386 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 852 bans
Wraith King
265 picks · 439 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 55%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:1
Series predictionmissed