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Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Level UPwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 21 game
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 19 games
37%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 16 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
47%

Level UP

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
70%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 9 games
89%
Windranger
Windranger
chempik · 9 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 7 games
57%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
WoE · 6 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Bb3px · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
496 picks · 355 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 233 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 637 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 346 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
316 picks · 230 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 396 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
295 picks · 284 bans
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 313 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total60% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:31
Nemiga Gaming 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 23:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerbyun
44% · 89 games58% · 35 games
SlarkWoE
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
57% · 293 games58% · 155 games
AxeBb3px
Axe
Kunkka
KunkkaCovisnine
42% · 67 games45% · 113 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Mirana
Miranararegods
46% · 35 games52% · 184 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernJANTER
49% · 83 games49% · 80 games
TechiesHtrd
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 60%
Series resultLevel UP 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1