Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wind and Rainwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SASimons Angelsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wind and Rain
No games played over 6 months.
Simons Angels
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1022 bans
Void Spirit
429 picks · 619 bans
Mars
378 picks · 660 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 660 bans
Earth Spirit
338 picks · 293 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 386 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 852 bans
Wraith King
265 picks · 439 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Wind and Rain
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Wind and Rain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteWind and Rain · 51%
Series resultWind and Rain 2:1
Series predictioncorrect