Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionDGDEOS Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Incubus Clubwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DEOS Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Benny · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Underlordoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
Clockwerk
Nuages · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
460 picks · 1020 bans
Void Spirit
429 picks · 617 bans
Mars
374 picks · 663 bans
Death Prophet
350 picks · 656 bans
Earth Spirit
338 picks · 291 bans
Phoenix
277 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 846 bans
Wraith King
265 picks · 437 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength58% Incubus Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% DEOS Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:51
DEOS Gaming 52%Incubus Club 48%
The model gave 52% on DEOS Gaming — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 25:18.
Game 2prediction missed
DEOS Gaming 52%Incubus Club 48%
The model gave 52% on DEOS Gaming — the game was taken by Incubus Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteDEOS Gaming · 52%
Series resultIncubus Club 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2