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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EHOMEwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Elephant

No games played over 6 months.

EHOME

Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 12 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
86%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xNova · 5 games
100%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
458 picks · 1015 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
428 picks · 614 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 660 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
349 picks · 652 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
337 picks · 291 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
276 picks · 388 bans
61%
Monkey King
Monkey King
267 picks · 844 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 178 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 61%
Series resultEHOME 0:2
Series predictioncorrect