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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zai · 4 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Puppey · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
YapzOr · 4 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 3 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
YapzOr · 3 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 3 games
100%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
82%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 14 games
86%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 14 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
449 picks · 1008 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
422 picks · 612 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 653 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
340 picks · 644 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
331 picks · 285 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 382 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
263 picks · 434 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
Team Secret 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMATUMBAMAN
42% · 66 games58% · 71 game
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
50% · 45 games46% · 77 games
Death ProphetNothingToSay
Death Prophet
Mirana
MiranaYapzOr
48% · 43 games43% · 43 games
BloodseekerFaith_bian
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
Pangolierzai
55% · 83 games49% · 14 games
Winter WyvernXinQ
Winter Wyvern
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPuppey
little data56% · 32 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed18:4
Team Secret 46%LGD Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 23:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMATUMBAMAN
42% · 36 games54% · 97 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Puck
PuckNisha
46% · 214 games56% · 189 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Venomancer
Venomancerzai
42% · 26 games54% · 76 games
PangolierFaith_bian
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYapzOr
47% · 129 games48% · 64 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Oracle
OraclePuppey
47% · 69 games60% · 48 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct14:33
Team Secret 48%LGD Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMATUMBAMAN
50% · 53 games51% · 100 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Puck
PuckNisha
45% · 181 game51% · 45 games
LycanFaith_bian
Lycan
Windranger
Windrangerzai
60% · 12 games46% · 64 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYapzOr
52% · 111 games48% · 116 games
Shadow ShamanXinQ
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BanePuppey
little data58% · 32 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3