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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 29 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 25 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
RESPECT · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Mirage · 17 games
35%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 16 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 16 games
75%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Corrupted · 14 games
57%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ssnovv1 · 13 games
54%

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 35 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 20 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
prblms · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Rain · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
524 picks · 340 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
455 picks · 246 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
406 picks · 183 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
357 picks · 330 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 514 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 137 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
299 picks · 292 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 521 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total58% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:45
HULIGANI 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 51:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidssnovv1
68% · 83 games53% · 78 games
Monkey Kingrincyq
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMirage
49% · 99 games60% · 36 games
PudgeRain
Pudge
Brewmaster
Brewmasterelmo^^
47% · 72 games50% · 112 games
Dawnbreakermangekyou
Dawnbreaker
Techies
TechiesRein
49% · 162 games44% · 225 games
Rubickprblms
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
48% · 122 games40% · 87 games
Lichaik
Lich
Game 2prediction correct8:27
HULIGANI 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 22:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperMirage
63% · 116 games60% · 59 games
Iorincyq
Io
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magessnovv1
68% · 13 games56% · 192 games
Keeper of the Lightmangekyou
Keeper of the Light
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerelmo^^
43% · 304 games47% · 328 games
Dragon KnightRain
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
50% · 513 games40% · 386 games
Dark Willowprblms
Dark Willow
Dazzle
DazzleRein
46% · 115 games47% · 96 games
Witch Doctoraik
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 58%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2